It is no secret that science fiction writers and readers have long cherished dreams of not only traveling to Mars but also establishing colonies there. Much of NASA's exploration effort is aimed at a manned Mars mission, although the exact nature, timing, and funding of such a mission remains in question. The Mars Society has embraced its visionary founder
Robert Zubrin's
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_Zubrin
> more streamlined approach.
Mars Direct
mars society.org/home/about/mars-direct
> "advocates a minimalist, live-off-theland approach to exploring the planet Mars.... Using existing launch technology and making use of the Martian atmosphere to generate rocket fuel, extracting water from the Martian soil, and eventually using the abundant mineral resources of the Red Planet for construction purposes, the plan drastically lowers the amount of material which must be launched from Earth to Mars."
While there are many different schemes for a Mars voyage, they share the same constraints. To conserve energy and time, it's best to make the trip when the two planets are the closest to one another in their orbits. This launch window opens every twenty-six months. A typical flight, then, would last at least two hundred days each way. That gives the astronauts about a year to explore. Most mission plans envision sending at least one supply ship ahead of the manned vehicle.
And then there's
Mars One
mars-one.com
>, a not-for-profit organization whose goal is to establish a human settlement on Mars—in a hurry. Their timetable calls for having the first spaceboots on the ground by 2023. That's in nine years, by my calendar. The scheduled departure for the first supply ship is 2016. Settlement rovers will follow, starting in 2018. These rovers will build habitats for the first group of four colonists. By 2025, groups of four will be arriving every two years, as the launch window permits. You may have heard of this group since they have been seeking volunteers for their colony; as I write this more than eighty-five thousand have signed up for a chance to spend the rest of their lives on Mars. You see, the Mars One folks plan to save money by booking you a one-way trip. Sign on, make the cut, and you will truly live and die as a Martian.
Can the Mars One scheme possibly work? "I don't know," says NASA administrator
General Charles Bolden
www.jsc.nasa.gov/Bios/htmlbios/bolden-cf.html
>. "I don't know what their plan is." Mars evangelist Robert Zubrin thinks the plan is theoretically possible. But, he says, "They have set a very high bar for themselves, and I'm not sure they have the resources."
Take the time to review the various proposals for getting to Mars—even the fastest of the fast track schemes—and one thing becomes clear. Dr. Zubrin and the other Mars advocates are right: we have 99 percent of the hardware we need to do it right now. Yes, we could improve some of the technology, maybe squeeze more efficiency from existing systems, but we're really pretty much good to go. And while it wouldn't be cheap, we also have the resources to fund a mission. If we could magically divert that fraction of our economy currently devoted to the video game industry to Mars exploration, we could cut the check next Tuesday.
There is a real problem with going to Mars, but it has to do with software, not hardware. And by software I don't mean programs and dbases and GUIs. I mean us. As science fiction readers, we have long had it drilled into us that space is a hostile environment. We know that exposure to the vacuum of space and its unimaginable cold will swiftly and surely kill us. But within the confines of a cozy spaceship—or a sprawling star-ship—we imagine we'll be safe.
But the space vehicles that you find here in
Asimov's
do not yet exist, and the ones we have available may not be able to take our crews to Mars and back safely. Consider, for example, the claustrophobia factor. The record for the longest continuous spaceflight is held by
Valeri Polyakov
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Valeri _Polyakov
> at 437 days, about one half the time proposed for most Mars missions. And he was living aboard the Soviet space station Mir; the first manned Mars vehicle is likely to be far more cramped.
But it is the problem of radiation that most concerns mission planners. Here on Earth and to some extent in low orbit we are protected by Earth's magnetic field. Once beyond its confines, galactic cosmic rays, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections pose a real threat. A solar proton event could kill a crew within hours unless they sought shelter behind shielding. We are getting better at predicting these infrequent storms on the sun, but our forecasting is by no means perfect. Galactic cosmic radiation (GCR), on the other hand, is continuous, and thus more troublesome. Measurements taken on the Mars Science Laboratory during its trip to deliver Curiosity show that that exposure to GCR may be
extremely hazardous to astronaut health
aaas.org/news/releases/2013/0530_mars.shtml
>, with an estimated dosage at or over acceptable career exposure levels on the inbound and outbound legs of the typical mission. Because the shielding around the Radiation Assessment Device (RAD) was similar to that which a manned vehicle would use, this is the first realistic estimate of the danger. And this measurement does not include GCR exposure that the astronauts would experience during their year exploring Mars, likely not to be as large but still significant. While the primary risk of this level of GCR has been thought to be increased chance of developing cancer later in life, another
new study points to a more immediate danger
space.com/19082-space-radiationastronauts-alzheimers.html
>. According to Dr. M. Kerry O'Banion of the University of Rochester, "The possibility that radiation exposure in space may give rise to health problems such as cancer has long been recognized. However, this study shows for the first time that exposure to radiation levels equivalent to a mission to Mars could produce cognitive problems and speed up changes in the brain that are associated with Alzheimer's disease." The study looked at high-mass, high-energy particles, specifically iron expelled by exploding stars. "Because iron particles pack a bigger wallop it is extremely difficult from an engineering perspective to effectively shield against them," said O'Banion. "One would have to essentially wrap a spacecraft in a six-foot block of lead or concrete."
Tom Godwin's
"The Cold Equations"
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Cold _Equations
> is a touchstone SF story about how laws of physics trump human desires. As of 2014, the radiation equation makes interplanetary travel seem unlikely. But perhaps we can change that equation for Mars. One way to might be to lessen the exposure by speeding up the voyage with a
better propulsion system
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_ thermal_rocket
>. Or maybe there is a way to design a
better shield
nature.com/news/spacecraft-data-nail-downradiation-risk-for-humans-going-to-mars-1.13099
>.
In the meantime, I intend to give Mars One a pass. If this adventure appeals to you, by all means send in your application fee. Me, I'll be writing my science fiction stories here on Earth. If nothing else, the cost of sending my manuscripts from a habitat in Bradbury City to Sheila in New York is more than I'm willing to pay.
Two huge novellas are crammed into our April/May 2014 double anniversary issue. "Each in His Prison, Thinking of the Key" is
William Preston's
exciting new story about an "Old Man" who's bigger than life and a young man who must learn to cope with his own devastating talents.
Robert Reed's
gigantic alternate history novella about "The Principles" introduces us to a recent college graduate, unemployed and aimless in a repressive society, and an intense older woman who is struggling to change an oppressive regime.
A charming protagonist makes the best of her deal with the devil in
Michael Swanwick's
"Of Finest Scarlet Was Her Gown"; new author
Fran Wilde
reveals that conditions on a prison planet will sting "Like a Wasp to the Tongue"; "Someday" making babies will be a lot different according to veteran
Asimov's
author
James Patrick Kelly;
but soldiers aren't going to find homecoming any easier according to
Matthew Johnson's
"Rules of Engagement." New-to-
Asimov's
author
Joe M. McDermott
spins a heartbreaking tale about a family that depends on "Dolores, Big and Strong";
K.J. Zimring's
"The Talking Cure" isn't quite as it appears;
M. Bennardo
tells an unusual story of survival in "Slowly Upward, the Coelacanth"; and in
Will McIntosh's
terrifying tale about an extraterrestrial invasion, a human boy has a strange encounter with an alien "Scout."
Robert Silverberg's
Reflections column sings the praises of "Borges, Leinster, Google";
Paul DiFilippo's
On Books column opens with a depiction of the life and
Alluring Art of Margaret Brundage
—the fabulous illustrator whose work once emblemized
Weird Tale's;
plus we'll have an array of poetry and other features you're sure to enjoy. Look for our April/May issue on sale at newsstands on February 25, 2014. Or subscribe to
Asimov's
—in paper format or in downloadable varieties—by visiting us online at
www.asimovs.com.
We're also available individually or by subscription on
Amazon.com's
Kindle and Kindle Fire,
BarnesandNoble.com's
Nook,
ebookstore.sony.com's
eReader,
Zinio.com, magzter.com/magazines,
and from Google Play!
new stories by
Nancy Kress, Lavie Tidhar, Allen M. Steele, Sandra McDonald, Ian Creasey, Alexander Jablokov, Sylvain Jouty, Suzanne Palmer, James Van Pelt, David Erik Nelson, Kara Dalkey, Tochi Onyebuchi,
and many others!
If one could marry the lusty, brute, Hyborian Age vigor of Robert E. Howard's tales to the erudite stylishness of Avram Davidson's fictions, one might get a rousing, artful adventure similar to Elizabeth Bear's
Eternal Sky
trilogy—currently, as I write, consisting of
Range of Ghosts
and
Shattered Pillars
(Tor, hard-cover, $26.99, 336 pages, ISBN 978-0765327550). The series has smarts and brawn, blood & thunder along with subtlety, barbarian vigor allied with civilized sophistication. "If Asmaracanda bestrode the world, a regal queen of cities, clothed in shining samite and jeweled in blue stones, the trade town that clutched at her hem was a motley procession of beggars." Yes, I am so there!
First off, Bear's choice of fantasy mythos and/or quasi-historical realm of action strikes agreeable fresh sparks. Her world is centered around an analogue of our Mongolia, a land of steppes and savage feuding horseclans. Kudos for this appealingly underused variety of subcreation; only a couple of folks, I think—Neal Stephenson with
The Mongoliad
and Pamela Sargent, with the fully historical
Ruler of the Sky
—have previously turned their gaze this way.
Bear's Khaganate is undergoing a dynastic war of succession, which, in the first book, has left our hero, young Temur (we instantly apprehend Tamerlane), wounded and estranged and on the run from the internecine struggles. In his exile he falls in love with a woman named Edene, who is stolen away from him by the hired sorceries of a Middle Eastern wizard named al-Sepehr, who is allied with Temur's usurping kin, Qori Buqa. Seeking to track down his lover, Temur ventures beyond the mountains known as the Range of Ghosts and encounters a female mage named Samarkar, of the Rasan Empire, which is undergoing its own political strife. Circumstances propel Samarkar and Temur and a handful of colorful comrades—I particularly enjoyed the otherworldly feline being named Hrahima—out on the road to reclaim his heritage. Reluctant at first, Temur eventually acknowledges his destiny, at the same time falling in love with Samarkar, and she with him. Meanwhile Edene, through the chance assumption of a magic token, the fabled Green Ring, has become the mystical heir to Erem, a realm of ghuls and djinns.
Shattered Pillars
finds our band of seekers in the Caliphate of Uthman, seeking allies. Meanwhile, a plague rages back in Samarkar's native city; the murderous machinations of Qori Buqa and al-Sepehr continue apace; and Edene becomes immersed in her scary new role. Fighting, political shenanigans, heroic medical struggles and lots of hard travel—did I mention yet the important role played by Temur's mystical horse, Bansh?—fill the pages to overflowing. By the end of installment two, all forces are poised for a battle royale.
Bear's old-school
Weird Tales-
worthy saga, infused with a knowing twentyfirst-century awareness, deserves some genius of the cinema to bring its Douglas-Fairbanks-meets-Sigourney-Weaver glories to the screen.
It's extremely heartening to see newer, younger writers devoting their talents to the short-story format, instead of leaping straight into novels and trilogies and such. As we all know, the pay for even a steady salable flow of such shorter works never can constitute a living wage; the average critical and fannish attention paid to short fiction, per item, is of course less than that paid to any individual novel; publishers are disinclined to feature story collections; and the competition at awards time is fiercer, due to a larger pool of candidates, even if many marginally published competing stories turn out to be sub-par.