Authors: Mukul Deva
‘How can the Pakistanis help anyone fight terrorism?’ someone asked caustically.
‘They could shoot themselves!’ another retorted sarcastically.
Several people in the room laughed.
‘The irony is that Pakistan proliferates nuclear technology to some of the same states that the Americans have nominated as diehard members of the Axis of Evil.’
‘That's poetic justice for you.’
‘I am sure all of you are right,’ Rao intervened quickly before the presentation deteriorated into a free-for-all. ‘Maybe that is why it surprised no one when a classified Pentagon document, the Nuclear Posture Review, presented to the Senate in February 2002 stressed that
America must prepare for all possible contingencies, especially now when dozens of countries and even some terrorist groups are engaged in secret weapon development programs
. In this landmark decision, which was coerced by a very hawkish US administration, the US Senate granted congressional approval to the
pre-emptive use
of nuclear weapons. Now, suddenly, nuclear weapons were no longer a weapon of last resort as they had been during the cold war.’
‘That's nonsense! How can anyone believe that?’
‘I quite understand what you mean,’ Rao said. ‘Maybe you should all see this.’ He gestured to the unseen aide again and a video clip came up on the silent screen behind him. It showed a segment culled from a Pentagon briefing.
‘Mini-nukes – those with a yield of less than 5000 tons – are harmless to civilians because they explode underground
.’ A preening Pentagon spokesman was addressing a hall full of media personnel.
A stunned silence fell upon Rao's audience as the clip concluded. It lasted till the Air Chief commented, ‘Mind you, in terms of potential radioactive fallout, such mini-nukes constitute a significant part of the atom bomb that was dropped on Hiroshima in 1945.’
‘True, sir.’ Rao took charge again. ‘But the fact remains that suddenly, in a truly fantastic piece of doublespeak, the Americans had begun to tout nuclear weapons
as a means of building peace and preventing collateral damage
. And this was only the beginning, because now the US administration actually prepared contingency plans for an offensive first strike with nuclear weapons not only against the so-called Axis of Evil – Iraq, Iran, Libya, Syria and North Korea – but also against Russia, China and India.’
‘Why would they start targeting India? We're a non-aligned –’
‘That's not the issue here, sir,’ Rao cut in smoothly. ‘The fact is that America is fully aware of the fact that these three countries have the military, economic and geo-strategic potential to counter its influence… especially if they decide to stand together. As we know, all three are already starting to make the right noises, their differences notwithstanding.’
‘How much of this is conjecture and how much reality?’ the Defence Minister questioned suddenly.
‘All of it is real, sir. As you will note, precisely one year after this, the Americans began their march down the road to war by targeting Iraq. America used their favourite
they-have-weapons-of-mass-destruction-and-are-a-threat-to-global-peace
excuse.’
‘That is rather funny when you consider that the Americans themselves have the largest collection of WMDs in the world,’ someone in the audience commented.
‘I thought the International Atomic Energy Agency debunked all that,’ the External Affairs Minister commented.
‘They did,’ Rao replied. ‘In fact, the IAEA Director General and the United Nations Chief Weapons Inspector went through the so-called
intelligence
presented by the Americans and the British to the United Nations Security Council and called it a load of hogwash. Neither of them found any evidence to indicate that Iraq possessed such weapons.’
‘In the months following the Iraqi misadventure the forces of the “Coalition of the Willing” suffered severe losses. Despite the much-hyped initial aerial blitzkrieg, the fact was that they were being hit hard and the number of body bags flown back from Iraq to the countries that comprised the Coalition surpassed all previous records. The highest body count was of American soldiers. No, it wasn't because the Yanks were at the forefront in the battlefield, it was simply because they comprised the largest part of the Coalition and were the most favoured targets of the unseen enemy.’
‘Now please observe what happened next. I'll give you the key events that help build the chain and allow you to see the grand design behind all these seemingly unrelated things.’ Rao paused briefly for a sip of water.
‘The bombs lobbed by both sides were exploding with meticulous regularity when, on 11 November 2004, an Israeli Defence Force delegation reached Brussels to attend a NATO conference. They met senior military commanders from Egypt, Jordan, Algeria, Tunisia, Morocco, Algeria and Mauritania.’
‘How is that relevant?’
‘During this conference the Israeli delegation agreed, for the first time, to participate in military exercises and anti-terror manoeuvres with several Arab countries. The conference was part of NATO's attempt to revive the Mediterranean Dialogue program. It was also a critical step forward for the Americans. The next target was Iran. This becomes amply clear when you listen to what the American Vice President said to MSNBC in an interview on 16 January 2005.’
Yet another video clip lit up the giant screen. The American Vice President loomed large on it. He was at his prime-time best.
‘
There is absolutely no doubt about it
,’ he was saying briskly. ‘
Iran is right at the top of the list of rogue enemies of America and considering various ground realities there is a strong possibility that Israel would be doing the bombing for us… as and when the need arises
.’ Replying to a spate of frenzied questions that erupted in the aftermath of this momentous statement, he clarified grandiosely, ‘
Given the fact that Iran has a stated policy that their objective is the destruction of Israel, the Israelis might well decide to act first, and let the rest of the world worry about cleaning up the diplomatic mess afterwards
.’
‘
Why not give Iran the same kind of nuclear deal that is being hammered out for Korea
?’ questioned the interviewer. ‘
Why don't we offer Iran an end to sanctions and free heavy oil fuel if they're ready to freeze their nuclear program
?’
‘
With North Korea it is different
,’ came the reply, failing, of course, to clarify why it was different. ‘
The Iranians won't do it. They just want to go ahead with their rogue program
.’
‘
But that is exactly what the President had also said about North Korea sometime back
,’ the interviewer insisted. ‘
So why is it different with Iran
?’
The Vice President mumbled something before he changed tack and took the conversation in a totally different direction. The clip ended.
‘The answer to that last question is obvious,’ Rao said. ‘Unlike Iran, North Korea is not sitting on huge oil reserves. The plan to attack Iran has nothing to do with nukes. It's all about oil. Oil and money. This WMD warning was so similar to the ones the Americans had been giving as justification for their earlier invasion of Iraq that it is surprising that more people did not take note of it or protest against it.’
‘Come on, Mr Rao. Nations don't just go to war….’
‘That's precisely what most of us think, sir,’ Rao countered. ‘Most of us are not even aware of how high the stakes are. Just to give you a little idea,’ Rao referred to his notes briefly, ‘The value of
only
the Kurdish oil fields is somewhere in the range of five trillion US dollars at current oil prices.’
A stunned silence met these words as people struggled to work out on the number of zeroes that the figure involved.
‘And do you know who has been granted the rights over this oil?’ Rao paused dramatically. ‘None other than Hunt Oil of Texas. Most of you may not know that the owner of Hunt Oil is a staunch Republican and a dear friend of the American President to whose election fund he has contributed very generously.’
‘Damn!’ someone in the front row exclaimed. ‘What an investment that contribution has turned out to be.’
‘Exactly! And it's only the tip of the iceberg, as the BBC investigative team concluded. That is why the Americans have been on the rampage.’ Rao indicated the screen again. ‘Please listen to what a former National Security Adviser had to say about the Vice President's interview a few days later.’ Yet another brief video clip began to unspool.
‘
Yes, the Vice President wants the Israelis to do it for us
,’ the former National Security Advisor was saying glibly. ‘
In Iran the issue is certainly not tyranny – it's nuclear weapons
.’
‘It is important for us to understand,’ Rao resumed as the video clip faded, ‘that what both the American Vice President and the NSA conveniently forgot to mention was that America was not just
encouraging
Israel in this misadventure. They were conceptualizing a full-fledged joint US-Israeli military operation to bomb Iran. For almost two years now the Neocons in the US Defence Department have been working assiduously with their Israeli military and intelligence counterparts, carefully identifying targets inside Iran.’
‘Who are the Neocons?’
‘Neocon is the abbreviation for the Neoconservatives,’ Rao explained. ‘The original neoconservatives were a band of liberal intellectuals who rebelled against the American Democratic Party's leftward drift on defence issues in the 1970s. Later they aligned themselves with the Republicans, who promised to confront Soviet expansionism. The neoconservatives, in the famous formulation of one of their leaders, Irving Kristol, are “liberals mugged by reality”. A lot of American critics take issue with the Neocons’ support of an aggressive foreign policy, their unilateralism and lack of concern for international consensus. Neocons have been attacked for their influence on US foreign policy, especially during the administration of President George W. Bush.’
There was a short silence as the audience absorbed this information.
Rao resumed, ‘Another thing that neither of them mentioned was that for more than two years now US and British intelligence and Special Forces, working with their Israeli counterparts, have been involved in the task of stirring ethnic tensions and regime-overthrow activity in Iran. And none of this is being done very covertly. In fact, in a newspaper interview in June 2003, an unnamed British intelligence official went on record to say –’
A newspaper clipping emerged on the screen.
The campaign against Iran will not be a ground war like the one in Iraq. The Americans will use different tactics. It is getting quite scary. Their expectation is that a US-Israeli bombing raid of Iran's nuclear facilities will stir up ethnic tensions and trigger regime change in favour of the US because the Iranian opposition movement would unseat the Mullahs.
‘But that's so stupid!’ The RAW chief couldn't contain himself. ‘It defies basic common sense and is a gross misjudgment of social forces inside Iran. Any kid on the streets will tell you that the Iranians would consistently rally behind a wartime government against foreign aggression and the entire Middle East is likely to go up in flames.’
‘Whatever….’ Rao returned to his sequence of events. ‘A fortnight later, American, Israeli and Turkish forces began joint military exercises just off the Syrian coast. They described them as routine, but extensive aerial activity was noticed during these manoeuvres. It was obvious that considerable efforts were being expended to map all the regional air defence networks, especially the Iranian one.
‘A fortnight later, in accordance with the decision taken at Brussels in November 2004, for the first time Israeli armed forces participated in military exercises with NATO. Surprisingly, these exercises also included several Arab countries. Yet again, no information was divulged about the objective of the manoeuvres, though a careful observer would have noticed that there was a concrete effort by all participants to coordinate defensive activity in case of missile strikes against any of them. Please note how the tempo of events has begun to escalate.’
‘This is amazing!’ the Defence Minister commented. ‘How come no one took note of all this?’
‘Unfortunately, not many people were observing these events or analysing them to clearly understand the horrendous implications. That is why I always refer to these as the years of unreason. And what happened next at Beirut was even more shocking.’
14 F
EBRUARY
2005
THE CLOCK WAS ON THE VERGE OF ANNOUNCING THE TENTH
hour of another beautiful morning when the motorcade, with the imposing black car at its centre, turned onto the road surfing along the sea front. The line of vehicles had just about reached the derelict St George Hotel on the Beirut seafront when one of the several nondescript cars parked on the side of the road exploded. Over a thousand kilograms of TNT had been stuffed into it. Nine people died instantly. Over a hundred were injured.
‘Among those killed was the former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri whose motorcade had been driving past. The bomb appeared to have been directed against it,’ the smart young journalist in Beirut battle fatigues told her audience. ‘Hariri, a self-made billionaire and business tycoon, headed five cabinets during his decade long tenure. He had resigned as the Prime Minister and joined the Opposition on 20 October 2004 and was hoping to make a comeback in the legislative elections the following May.’
A few hours later she was back on air, reading out a statement that had been issued by a little known group called Victory and Jehad in Greater Syria, which claimed responsibility for the killing. ‘The operation was carried out by one of our suicide bombers,’ the statement concluded.
‘However,’ the reporter added, ‘investigators doubt the veracity of this claim by the barely known group. Things are unclear at this stage, but both the US and the UK are pushing for and sponsoring a United Nations probe into this assassination. We promise to keep you updated about this shocking event.’
A few days later she was back with the latest.
‘The UN probe sponsored by America and Britain has implicated several officials of the Syrian and Lebanese intelligence services for the Hariri killing. However,’ she said emphatically, ‘no one has been officially charged till now.’
‘We had nothing to do with it’ – Syria immediately issued strong and persistent denials.
‘They definitely did!’ an American spokesperson countered, without bothering to explain why or how she knew. ‘Such acts cannot be allowed to go unpunished. Syria must withdraw all its troops from Lebanon immediately. Lebanon should be allowed to pursue its political future, free from violence and free from Syrian occupation.’
‘You mean, just like the Iraqis are being allowed to?’ a correspondent from the Middle East asked sarcastically. The question was conveniently ignored. Nor did the American spokesperson mention that the Syrian withdrawal primarily served American and Israeli interests.